You know what really makes me beat my head against a wall?
When a publisher releases a free PDF version of a game to test interest in sales, and then complains about the fact that thousands of people downloaded the PDF, but only dozens actually bought the book, then go on to argue that the giveaway
clearly deprived them of profits they
would have otherwise had.
The above "lost sales" idea is often, though not exclusively, an observation/statement made by clueless newbs to the publishing game, but hobby-industry names aren't beyond using it to make similarly foolish claims (I am reminded of an on-going argument some years ago I had with an individual at, as I recall, Hogshead Publishing over his claim that because they had released one of their core books for free on-line and then seen no significant increase in sales despite thousands-and-thousands of downloads, they had lost significant sales).
Big eyes, cue whine: "I released my product for free to see if it would drive up sales. And people downloaded 2451 copies, but the book hasn't sold anywhere near that! Obviously, if I hadn't released it for free, I would have made thousands of sales that I've now lost!"
The glaring illogic underlying the nonsense of this claim is the foundational assumption that "everyone who downloaded the book would have bought it". Or even "a significant number of those who downloaded the book would have bought it".
This is about as rational an idea as filming stacks of your book in a store, counting every time someone picks up your book to look at it and then freaking out when your sales numbers don't match the number of people who looked at your book! (OMG! PEOPLE BROWSING AT BOOKSTORES ARE DEPRIVING ME OF PROFITS!!)
But unless you're a raging idiot, you wouldn't expect everyone who picks up your book in the store (or, heck, even who checks it out from a library!) and browses through it to then purchase a copy. And in the vast majority of cases, just as with browsing titles at the bookstore,
the downloader finds the material of no interest, or at least not enough interest to purchase right then.
(Which further assumes the downloader
even gets around to actually looking at the PDF, instead of either deleting it or forgetting about it entirely!)
The issue is this: downloads are not products.
A downloaded product is
at best the equivalent of someone picking up your book and flipping through it to see if they find it interesting...which it may not even be the equivalent of. People will often and regularly download things just to download them. They won't use them, read them, share them, or anything else. They will download it and packrat the file.
Heck, I can't tell you the number of PDFs I've downloaded off the net that momentarily piqued my interest--hundreds over the the years--that I never even glanced at after download, and now sit forgotten and unread on my hard drive. I am not at all unique or uncommon in this behavior.
THESE ARE NOT LOST SALES.
The "lost sales" viewpoint and argument arise from a failure to understand the nature of on-line transactions and virtual realities, and why one can not treat a download as the equivalent of a real copy of an item in a bookstore.
First, while you can tell who "picked up" the book with a download, you can't also tell who "put down" the book--thus the problem with hand-wringing over supposed lost sales is that it assumes as a premise everyone who "picked up" (ie: downloaded) the book never put it down (ie: deleted it afterwards or never bothered to actually look at it).
Electronic downloads are also subtly different from physical sales in that there is no shelf and no physical product and are transferred from a repository location to a viewer's location, rather than the reverse of having individuals travel to the location of that material. Which is describing how:
the internet is like bookstore that comes to the customer.
So an electronic file someone has downloaded can not be treated as though it were a physical book sitting on a shelf somewhere in someone's home that they are getting some kind of use out of, that you've thus lost something in the transaction. It can at best be thought of as a product sitting on a shelf in an instantaneously-traveling personalized bookstore, use-unpurchased.
People download things on-line to take a quick look at them, because that's how the on-line world works: information is transferred between machines, rather than a person arriving at the location of the information to be perused. But just as in the old method of introducing people to products: in the vast majority of cases find they aren't interested in what they see.
At best downloads can be treated and function as though the book had been picked up and put back down; but given that people will regularly download things just to download them,
download numbers are meaningless in a traditional sense of measuring actual interest and potential sell-through of goods.
So thousands of people downloaded a free copy of your PDF and yet your sales are only a couple dozen or less? OMG!
Here's what really happened: some folks with unclear motivations moved some electrons around some wires. You have now lost...what? Cost of materials? A sale? Validation of the skill and value of your work? All those people would have bought your book otherwise and now have a free version of it you aren't getting anything for?
Nope. You have lost absolutely
nothing. Not unless you count people browsing your book at the store as a lost sale. Not unless you count everyone who fails to buy your product after seeing an ad for it as a lost sale: "They saw my ad and didn't pay me for my book! I'm LOSING SALES!"
And that's it right there:
downloads are not sales or product giveaways. They're a form of modern advertising. And if you know anything about advertising, you know adverts do not have a significant sales-conversion rate: we're talking fractions of percentages per advertisement.
You're living in a new world, kids. You need to understand it.
(PS: let's not talk run off and start talking about the above as though it is excusing or minimizing PDF "piracy", because while PDF piracy is related to the above concepts, such a discussion also requires understanding the complexities of the above situation. First focus on wrapping one's head around the idea that downloads are not measurements of interest or sales potentials in either direction and the nature of electronic media and how they are not at all like physical media (even when we want to treat them as the same).)